Under The Wheels of Progress Pt. 2: The Fallout

When the Cruise autonomous vehicle collided with and dragged a pedestrian through the streets of San Francisco in October 2023, the event sent shockwaves through the tech and automotive industries. The accident marked a tragic milestone: the first known fatality involving a self-driving car in the Bay Area. It also catalyzed a series of decisions, regulatory actions, and public debates that continue to shape the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Just over a year later, as I reflect on this event and its aftermath, the trajectory of both Cruise and the broader self-driving car landscape appears increasingly uncertain.

In the wake of that fateful incident, which occurred on a crisp Indian Summer night, it became painfully clear that the technology was far from infallible. The victim, a woman who had been struck and thrown by a human-driven car, found herself tragically in the path of a second vehicle: a Chevrolet Bolt operated by Cruise, which dragged her for 20 feet. While she survived, she sustained life-threatening injuries that would haunt the future of autonomous vehicles and the companies behind them. In the months that followed, Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors (GM), faced an avalanche of scrutiny, legal battles, and regulatory hurdles that would change the course of its journey.

The Fallout from the Cruise Accident

The day after the incident, I walked past the now-infamous corner of 5th and Market in San Francisco, where the tragic scene had unfolded. The bloodstains left by the woman’s head were a stark reminder of the deep human cost of technological experimentation. Yet, as odd as it sounds, there was something unsettling about the situation: there was no human at the wheel to blame. No driver to point to, no personal accountability to confront. The void left by this absence raised uncomfortable questions about liability, safety, and the nature of autonomous technology.

Cruise quickly found itself embroiled in a crisis. The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) moved swiftly to suspend the company's operating license. Citing several violations of state regulations—ranging from unsafe vehicle performance to misrepresentations regarding the safety of its autonomous technology—the DMV revoked Cruise’s permit to operate in California. This move, which echoed the concerns of many critics who had warned about the premature rollout of self-driving cars, sent shockwaves through the industry. The DMV’s suspension was a rare but necessary act of accountability for a technology that, despite its promises, had failed to protect the public.

In response to the suspension, Cruise paused its nationwide operations. By December 2023, the company announced significant layoffs, cutting 24% of its workforce in a move that symbolized the company's retreat from its ambitious goals. While its parent company, GM, continued to work on autonomous technology, Cruise’s dreams of dominating the taxi service market seemed to be fading into the rearview mirror.

The GM Pivot: Focusing on Driver Assistance Over Full Autonomy

Fast forward to 2024, and it appears that General Motors (GM) is stepping back from the ambitious pursuit of autonomous taxi fleets. In a recent announcement, GM stated that it would cease developing autonomous vehicles for its taxi service, focusing instead on more incremental advancements in driver-assistance technology through its Super Cruise system.

This shift in strategy reflects a growing realization that the path to full autonomy—especially for commercial applications like robo-taxis—may be longer and more fraught with challenges than previously imagined. GM cited increasing competition in the self-driving space and the considerable time and resources required to scale such a business. In other words, the race to create the driverless taxi of the future was simply too costly, and the risks too high, for GM to keep pouring resources into.

Cruise's pivot, coupled with the fallout from the fatal accident, underscores the larger trend facing the autonomous vehicle industry. While companies like Cruise have made impressive technological strides, the reality is that autonomous vehicles still have a long way to go before they can operate safely and reliably in complex, real-world environments.

Legal and Regulatory Battles: Cruise Faces Accountability

While the accident in San Francisco raised difficult ethical and regulatory questions, it was just the beginning of a much larger legal drama for Cruise. The company was forced to contend with a criminal investigation after it admitted to submitting a false report to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) regarding the incident. According to federal prosecutors, Cruise employees had failed to accurately describe the pedestrian's injuries and the extent to which the vehicle dragged her.

In the wake of this revelation, Cruise reached a settlement with the injured pedestrian, reportedly agreeing to pay between $8 million and $12 million in compensation. While the exact terms remain undisclosed, the settlement highlights the company's attempt to mitigate the damage caused by the accident, both in terms of legal liability and public perception.

Despite the public backlash, Cruise's co-founder, Kyle Vogt, resigned from his role shortly after the incident. His departure only added to the growing sense of turmoil surrounding the company. On social media, Vogt made his feelings clear, stating, "In case it was unclear before, it is clear now: GM are a bunch of dummies." His blunt critique underscores the internal friction that has plagued Cruise and its parent company, GM, as they attempt to navigate the fallout from this tragedy.

The Competitors: Waymo and the Broader Autonomous Vehicle Landscape

While Cruise struggles with its regulatory woes, other companies in the autonomous vehicle space are forging ahead. Waymo, the self-driving car division of Google's parent company Alphabet, has made significant strides, with reports showing that its vehicles are generally better at avoiding accidents than human drivers. Although Waymo hasn't been immune to criticism, its vehicles have logged millions of miles on public roads with relatively few incidents.

In contrast to Cruise's struggles, Waymo and its peers, including Tesla and Amazon, continue to push forward in the race to build autonomous vehicles. However, even these companies are finding the path to full autonomy challenging. Ford and Volkswagen's joint venture, Argo AI, was shut down in 2022, while other companies have scaled back or abandoned their own self-driving projects altogether. The road to a fully autonomous future is proving to be more winding than anyone expected.

A Fractured Future: AI, Jobs, and Regulation

The controversy surrounding Cruise is only one facet of a larger debate about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. As self-driving cars and AI technologies advance, concerns are mounting about job displacement, regulation, and ethical implications. Cruise’s collapse serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of moving too quickly to introduce transformative technologies without adequate oversight.

AI, for all its promise, is starting to displace blue-collar workers, leaving many concerned about the future of human employment. Will AI and automation create a world where a few major players control everything, while the rest of us scramble for work? This is a real fear, and one that calls for serious regulation of both AI technology and autonomous systems. But as we’ve seen with Cruise, finding a way to balance innovation with public safety remains a difficult task.

In the case of autonomous vehicles, the question remains: How many accidents—fatal or otherwise—are acceptable? What percentage of self-driving trips can result in collisions before regulators step in? These are questions that need to be answered, not just by the companies developing the technology but by society as a whole.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Autonomous Vehicles

As Cruise pulls back from its ambitious driverless taxi dreams and GM rethinks its approach, the future of autonomous vehicles remains uncertain. The challenges facing Cruise serve as a stark reminder of the perils of pushing new technologies into the public sphere without fully understanding their impact. While companies like Waymo continue to make progress, the broader question of how to regulate and integrate AI into our lives remains unresolved. For now, we must ask: Is the road to a fully autonomous future worth the risk, or should we tread carefully, mindful of the human lives at stake? The answer is far from clear.

- Bay Phoenix